Sarah Stier/Getty Images. Pictured: Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Aaron Nola
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In his eighth major league season, Aaron Nola is enjoying one of his best campaigns atop the Phillies rotation. His 3.25 ERA is his best since 2018, and his xERA of 2.71 is a career-high.
On the strikeout front, Nola has hit this line in seven of his last 11 starts, despite navigating a tougher schedule.
His season-long called + swinging strike rate of 31.3% ranks fourth among qualified starting pitchers.
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Nola gets a much lighter matchup tonight against the Cincinnati Reds. Since the trade deadline, Cincinnati’s strikeout rate of 25.4% ranks fourth. The Reds have been struggling to produce, with an 83 wRC+ (25th).
And Cincinnati has struggled against Nola’s best pitch, the curveball, all season. At least six of the Reds’ projected starters tonight have strikeout rates of at least 30 percent against the pitch. And Nola’s curveball is one of the best in baseball: He registers a 44% whiff rate when he spins it.
Overall, this is a fantastic matchup for the Phillies stalwart. I have Nola recording his eighth strikeout in the sixth inning tonight. I’d be this to -130.
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